A brief analysis of recent Israeli foreign policy: regional summits a year and a half on from the Abraham Accords, plus staying neutral in face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

– by Alexander Jones –

Israel’s strategic foreign policy goals have always been numerous and complex, if nothing else. As the first quarter of 2022 draws to a close and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to upend the established world order, it’s an interesting time to examine some recent developments and gaze into the crystal ball.

This week in Sde Boker, a kibbutz in Israel’s Negev Desert, foreign ministers of Israel, the United States, Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco met for a summit which would have been unthinkable just 18 months ago, before the signing of the Abraham Accords. More on the meeting later, but to start the story we should understand what the Accords themselves mean. Initially they saw Israel and the two Gulf States launch formal diplomatic relations, under the leadership of then-US President Trump. It was pointed out to Green Olive readers back then but bears repeating; these deals were not ‘peace agreements’ as many in the Israeli media would have readers believe, rather quite the opposite. They are arms, cyber and trade deals designed to bolster the Western-Sunni alliance against Iran.

Normalisation with Sudan and Morocco soon followed, and as Trump was being voted out of office he reminded the world that many other Muslim-majority countries were lining up to sign similar agreements thanks to his leadership, if only his tenure in the White House continued.

Oman was widely expected to be the next in line, but the death of long reigning Sultan Qaboos bin Said and the elections of Joe Biden (in the US) and Naftali Bennett (in Israel) were enough to scupper any deal.

In Sudan, the military coup in October 2021 threw their nascent diplomatic relationship with Israel into doubt, but the strained pact has so far resisted collapse. Israel’s relationship with Sudan is certainly the shakiest among the six Arab countries who recognise the Jewish state, and Sudan is often absent from new trade, education and travel partnerships. The new Israeli collation government, led by Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, have continued working hard behind-the-scenes to keep countries like Sudan on board and add ones like Oman to the list.

Indonesia looms as a potential next target. Realistic reports are that high ranking Israeli and Indonesian officials met this week, despite widespread public opposition towards Israel in the Asian archipelago. A 2017 poll by the BBC World Service found that only 9% of Indonesians view Israel’s global foreign policy influence in a positive light.

Notably this is a similar level to Turkey’s, somewhere which, despite this, continues to conduct a significant amount of trade with Israel and which sees plenty of Israeli tourism. The Israeli President himself visited Ankara this month, the first such visit since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. As well as bilateral interests, Turkish President Ergodan finds himself drawn closer to Israeli leaders in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Both countries have resisted Western attempts to cut Russia off, and are largely continuing to fly to Moscow, St Petersburg and other Russian cities. Notably, Turkey is now host to several Russian oligarchs’ superyachts and Israel has become a safe haven for dozens of oligarchs escaping European and American sanctions, many of whom are eligible for Israeli citizenship because they have at least one Jewish grandparent. Israel has refused to sell the ‘Iron Dome’ missile defence technology and Pegasus spyware to Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia. However, Israel and Turkey are treading a fine line with regards to Ukraine, as their relationships with the largest country (entirely) in Europe, with the EU, and with the US, remain at least as important as their relationship with Putin.

One special reason to be concerned with Russia is the situation in Syria. Putin’s support for Bashar al-Assad is what has kept him in power despite a decade of civil war, and although he is certainly no friend to Israel (or Turkey for that matter), he is preferable to many alternatives. Realistically, it is also Putin who controls Syria’s skies. Israel regularly bombs targets in Syria they claim to be associated with Daesh/IS, Hezbollah, or Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and is obsessed with checking Iranian influence in her unstable northern neighbours (both Lebanon and Syria). This would not be possible without Russian acquiescence and becomes ever more important by the day as Iran appears to be edging closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Maintaining a working relationship with Russia is therefore absolutely critical if Israel is able to wield any influence over Middle Eastern rivals like Syria or Iran. Assad’s rule appears more entrenched than at any point since the Civil War began, to the point where he made an official state visit to the Emirates this month – his first to any Arab country in over a decade. The move blindsided Washington, but there would be significant gains to the anti-Iran bloc were Assad to be tempted to trade some of his Iranian financial support for increased international acceptance and recognition. After all, sanctions mean there is less-and-less Iranian support to go round these days – the desperate financial situation of Hamas in Gaza is one case in point. In response, the Iranians wasted no time reasserting themselves as Assad’s greatest ally, with their foreign minister travelling to Damascus last Wednesday.

One can only imagine the Israelis would have loved to be a fly-on-the-wall in that meeting! Indeed, the Syrian trip to Abu Dhabi was one of the main agenda items discussed this week in the Negev, but also the week before in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt’s Red Sea resort, when Israel’s Bennett, Egypt’s Mohammad el-Sissi and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan held their first ever tri-partite summit. For Israel these two meetings, so unlikely just a year and a half ago, are framed first and foremost around the Iran issue. Each of the other attendees were there for their own reasons; for example, new direct flights from Tel Aviv to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula were announced, as was increased regional agricultural and biotech cooperation. But despite Arab countries preferring not to rattle sabres too loudly, the issue of combatting Iran and her proxies was certainly paramount.

Simultaneously, Jordanian King Abdullah II made a rare visit to Ramallah to meet with members of the Palestinian Authority, prompting a return trip today by Israel’s President Isaac Herzog to Amman.

On its own, each of these actions could be written off as regular diplomatic posturing, but taken together it is clear that all concerned are aware of the global shake-up underway. The shambolic way NATO pulled out of Afghanistan and the West’s inability to topple Assad in Syria, have reduced the public appetite in these countries for foreign interventions, while simultaneously signalling to despots around the world that perhaps the West is not the reliable ally they make themselves out to be.

The biggest shock to the system of course however, is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The post-WWII norms are under threat and the supply lines of wheat, weapons and power are all brought into question by the war. Egyptian leaders know full well how reliant they are on wheat from this part of the world, and the dangerous consequences price increases can have on their regime. Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule came in an end in 2011’s Arab Spring, brought on in no small part by failing harvests and the rising cost of bread.

Israel and Turkey have both been positioning themselves to act as mediators, with Bennett offering multiple times to host negotiations but ultimately it was Turkey which hosted an inconclusive summit which ended today.

War brings chaos, but with it comes opportunity as much as death and destruction. It seems that all the players in the wider region are well aware of this and much of this diplomatic activity is a sign that they are trying to understand the news rules of the game.

And where does all this leave the Palestinians? As has increasingly become the norm, they are reduced to being geopolitical observers. The Abraham Accords and the normalisation deals which followed saw four Arab countries break ranks, ignore the Arab Peace Initiative, and cosy up to Israel – all with the promise however that they would hold the IDF to task with regards to its activities in the Occupied Territories and continue to advocate for the Two-State Solution. There is no evidence of that thus far.

Long overdue Palestinian Authority elections last year were again cancelled at the last minute and there is no sign they will be held any time soon. Hamas’s rise in popularity in the West Bank mirrors the public’s dissatisfaction with the Fatah-lead government and it seems the PA, Israel and the international community alike are all simply kicking the can down the road, perhaps waiting for 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas to pass away. Succession planning is not apparent, with the most likely candidates either in prison or abroad.

This leaves Palestinian people with few options. Perhaps one is to return to the headlines the old fashioned way – violence. Already this week three deadly attacks have targeted Israeli civilians, claiming the lives of at least 11 people (making it the deadliest month for Israeli civilians since 2006). Next month sees Ramadan, Easter and Passover all align at the same time and tensions will be sky high in Jerusalem. Planned evictions in Sheik Jarrah were the cause of the violence last May, and despite a Supreme Court ruling that three Palestinian families can remain living there, the neighbourhood remains at a crossroads with any change there likely to spark violence. Likewise at the Al Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount, where an increasing number of Jews are reportedly praying clandestinely, in a break from the 70-year old status quo, change in any direction would likely increase tension.

In a time of increasing instability what is perhaps most remarkable is how for millions of people in the Middle East, life goes on. In the streets of Tel Aviv, Ramallah and beyond, the vast majority remain unaffected by the international events discussed above. This is not to downplay the senseless murders we have seen this week, rather a reminder that the famous Middle Eastern hospitality is still being dished out across the region. Long may that continue.